bellwether counties epoch times
Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Theres significant variability among them, though. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. This is a high farming community.. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. What you need to know, summarized in one email. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. He pissed off a lot of people. Im looking at both sides of it. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Im not happy with the way things are now. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Our roads need to be fixed. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. I believe in a time cycle. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Jim Hoft. I think its very political right now, honestly. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. It will cycle through. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Theres significant variability among them though. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. He is his own worst enemy.. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Port Clinton, Ohio. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Im not even sure what direction were going.. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. I am under that impression. What happened to our Democratic Party? There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. And we just want that to continue. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. I would never vote any other way. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. He considers Trump pro-life. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. I just want Trump in. I got a life. . But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. And its never going to come back.. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Were a service industry-oriented area. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said.